Scenario Lab
Adjust parameters and observe downstream consequences in real time.
Managed Escalation: Tit-for-tat exchanges with calibrated responses; partial Strait disruption via harassment and insurance denial; sanctions intensification; eventual negotiated framework after 60-90 days
Willingness of senior leadership to accept escalation risk
Strength of allied coalition consensus and burden-sharing
Intensity of economic sanctions and secondary enforcement
Level of Iran-aligned non-state actor operations
Degree of Strait of Hormuz and Gulf shipping disruption
Reliability of intelligence assessments driving decisions
Supply-demand balance and price pressure in global oil markets
Severity of cyber operations targeting critical infrastructure
Viability and credibility of back-channel negotiations
Intensity of domestic political pressure on decision-makers
- Diplomatic Resolution
- Managed Escalation
- Escalation Spiral
- Regional Conflagration
- Current