SCAE v3.2.1UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO // EXERCISE — EXERCISE — EXERCISE2026-03-08 07:06:34Z

Game Tree

Interactive branching tree with trigger points, confidence ranges, and off-ramp identification.

HUMRHIGH
Off-Ramp Decision Escalation
28% | 25 nodes | 24 edges
SystemCrisis Trigger: Strait Incid...IRGC fast boats harass U.S. Navy destroyer... USS Carney in Strait of Hormuz; warni...3 responses →U.S.40%Diplomatic Protest + Force P...Formal diplomatic protest via Swiss protec...ting power channel; second carrier str...2 responses →OFF-RAMPIran30%De-escalation SignalIran claims incident was defensive respons...e to U.S. provocation; IRGC-Navy pulls...Iran70%Continued Harassment Campaig...Further IRGC-Navy provocations in Strait; ...mine-laying indicators in approach cha...1 response →U.S.55%Graduated Pressure CampaignEnhanced sanctions package targeting IRGC ...financial network; naval escort operat...1 response →OFF-RAMPSystemNegotiated De-escalationBack-channel negotiations via Oman and Qat...ar produce ceasefire framework; mariti...U.S.35%Proportional Naval ResponseTargeted strike on IRGC-Navy facility at B...andar Abbas fast-boat pens; accompanie...2 responses →Iran55%Proxy Activation (Calibrated...Hezbollah fires limited rocket salvo at un...populated northern Israel; Houthi anti...2 responses →U.S.60%Multi-Theater ResponseStrikes on Houthi launch sites; enhanced f...orce protection in Iraq; intelligence ...1 response →SystemEscalation SpiralTit-for-tat cycle accelerates beyond inten...ded limits; multiple theaters active s...2 responses →SystemRegional ConflagrationMulti-front conflict across Gulf, Lebanon,... Red Sea, and Iraq; global energy cris...TERMINALOFF-RAMPSystemNegotiated De-escalationBack-channel negotiations via Oman and Qat...ar produce ceasefire framework; mariti...Israel50%Israeli Independent ActionIDF strikes on Hezbollah launch sites in s...outhern Lebanon; IAF on heightened ale...1 response →SystemEscalation SpiralTit-for-tat cycle accelerates beyond inten...ded limits; multiple theaters active s...2 responses →SystemRegional ConflagrationMulti-front conflict across Gulf, Lebanon,... Red Sea, and Iraq; global energy cris...TERMINALOFF-RAMPSystemNegotiated De-escalationBack-channel negotiations via Oman and Qat...ar produce ceasefire framework; mariti...Iran45%Asymmetric RetaliationAPT33 cyber attack on U.S. financial infra...structure; mine-laying in Strait appro...1 response →U.S.65%Cyber + Mine CountermeasuresCYBERCOM retaliatory operations against Ir...anian infrastructure; Navy mine counte...2 responses →OFF-RAMPSystemNegotiated De-escalationBack-channel negotiations via Oman and Qat...ar produce ceasefire framework; mariti...SystemEscalation SpiralTit-for-tat cycle accelerates beyond inten...ded limits; multiple theaters active s...2 responses →SystemRegional ConflagrationMulti-front conflict across Gulf, Lebanon,... Red Sea, and Iraq; global energy cris...TERMINALOFF-RAMPSystemNegotiated De-escalationBack-channel negotiations via Oman and Qat...ar produce ceasefire framework; mariti...U.S.25%Escalatory Military ResponseBroader strikes on IRGC infrastructure acr...oss 3 sites; CYBERCOM operations again...1 response →Iran75%Full Spectrum ResponseBallistic missile strikes on Al Udeid (Qat...ar) and Al Dhafra (UAE); full proxy ac...1 response →SystemRegional ConflagrationMulti-front conflict across Gulf, Lebanon,... Red Sea, and Iraq; global energy cris...TERMINAL
Node Analysis
G-ROOT

Crisis Trigger: Strait Incident

System
Scenario Description

IRGC fast boats harass U.S. Navy destroyer USS Carney in Strait of Hormuz; warning shots fired after repeated close approaches within 150 yards; Iranian drone overflies carrier strike group

HIGH Confidence

Well-supported by historical precedent and current intelligence indicators.

Possible Responses (3)
Diplomatic Protest + Force Posture
40%

Formal diplomatic protest via Swiss protecting power channel; second carrier strike group ordered to Gulf; CENTCOM force protection elevated; no kinetic response

Proportional Naval Response
35%

Targeted strike on IRGC-Navy facility at Bandar Abbas fast-boat pens; accompanied by back-channel message via Oman emphasizing limited intent and desire for de-escalation

Escalatory Military Response
25%

Broader strikes on IRGC infrastructure across 3 sites; CYBERCOM operations against IRGC command and control; carrier air wing demonstrates over Gulf

Game-Theoretic Concepts
Incomplete InformationSignalingCommitment ProblemReputation EffectsMisperception Risk